Twoblueshoes

I’ve been thinking some more about the whole ‘end of the world as we know it’ scenario, and what that might mean for me, specifically.

I think it’s pretty clear that the music industry is in for a really big shake-up. Or at the very least a long, slow decline. Given that with a little bit of talent, one person can make an entire album using standard software like GarageBand, and distribute it through any number of alternative means (see Sandra’s post), the old model doesn’t look like at all like one that’s going to last.

There’s signs that TV might not be all that far behind. Digital cameras are cheap as, and YouTube, while perhaps not the ideal forum, is at least a way to make your work publicly available. The part where you have to pay people (i.e. actors who aren’t your friends) for they work they do still means that the standard model has some life in it, but as Tessa was saying the other day, it might not be for long.

I’m more interested in the publishing industry. eBooks and readers have been around for eaons, and periodically there’s huge panic about the sky falling and real printed books disappearing from view FOREVER. But it doesn’t ever seem to actually happen. While there are definite seismic shifts going on in the world of academic journals (See apophenia’s blog for an idea of how explosive this issue can be), trade books (i.e. the standard range in your local Borders, A&R, whatever) seem to be roaring along. Book sales increase exponentially each year. A lot of what gets bought is pretty ordinary, sure, but at least it’s being published. (There’s a whole world of argument about the declining state of literary fiction, poetry, etc, etc, and I guess eventually these sorts of books might end up relegated to the world of print-on-demand, but that’s another post.)

I should probably try and get some figures for sales of Kindles and the like (which you can read more about here) but as far as I can tell, I still have a job making real books. Electronic versions of a lot of those real books go into Google Book Search, NetLibrary, and various other ebook retailers, but the paltry income they generate is barely worth the effort. (Luckily, once they’ve made it to publication, it’s hardly any effort at all.)

So really, what’s going on? Is it just because I know more about this particular process that I think there’s more to it? Will it be possible in the future to skip the parts that include editors, proofreaders, typesetters, text designers, etc, and be a maverick self-publisher with (gasp!) good quality work that doesn’t reek of loony fringe? (There is one book that I know of that’s pretty much succeeded in all this. It’s pretty small, and it’s a cookbook, but the Hungry Girls have done a great job.) Or is simply too hard to get good quality stuff out there without the help of all those other people?

The crazy weather that’s going on outside (a cyclone in the city? seriously? maybe the sky really is falling!) is wreaking havoc with the power here, so I might just post this now and add more later, but it’s a start…